Picking The Boston Marathon Winners
Confession; I bet on golf almost every week and thus I read a lot of golf tournament previews. Too many actually (though I did win a whopping $25 on The Masters). The point is...I like some of them and some of them I think are not worth the 5-10 minutes they probably took to write. One format that I always love, though, is when a writer picks the winner by the process of elimination. They identify certain metrics from previous winners and eliminate the players who don’t meet those metrics going into this year’s tournament. They don’t always come up with the winning pick but it makes for a fun article. So I figured I’d do that for the 2025 Boston Marathon and see what happens. Hope you like it. Here goes:
THE MEN’S RACE
There are 63 athletes entered in this year’s official professional men’s field according to the Boston Marathon website. You can check out the full list HERE. 63 is a lot. So let the eliminating begin!
1) Going back to 2010, the only countries that have produced a Boston men’s winner are Ethiopia, Japan, Kenya, and the United States.
That means we say goodbye to: Alphonce Felix Simbu, Victor Kiplangat, Tebello Ramakongoana, Tsegay Weldlibanos, Patrick Tiernan, Rory Linkletter, Amanuel Mesel, Yemane Haileselassie, Erenjia Jia, Tesfu Tewelde, Johannes Motschmann, Primoz Kobe, Juan Vidal Ribero, Pablo Villalobos Bazaga, Barry Keane.
2) Every men’s winning time since 2019 (aka the super shoe era) has been 2:09:51 or faster. So if your PB is above 2:10:00, you’re probably not going to go under for the first time en route to winning the Boston Marathon.
Farewell to: Reed Fischer, Wesley Kiptoo, Nathan Martin, Ryan Ford, Colin Mickow, Turner Wiley, Robert Miranda, Charlie Sweeney, JP Flavin, Joseph Whelan, Steven Martinez, Lyle O’Brien, Erik Linden, Jacob Heslington, Louis Serafini, Yudai Fukuda, Hiroaki Furukawa, Grant O'Connor, Aaron Davidson, Kevin Kirk, Michael Blaszczyk, Joost Plaetinck, Kyle Johnson, Jesse Davis, Dustin Bybee, Jonathan Kotter, Sam Morse, Iain Hunter
3) Every men’s winner since 2018 (including Yuki Kawauchi) had at least one top-7 finish at one of the other World Marathon Majors (Berlin, Chicago, London, New York City, or Tokyo) on their resume before winning in Boston.
Happy trails to: Daniel Mateiko, Colin Bennie, Asefa Boki, Zach Panning, Brian Schrader
4) For at least the last 25 years (admittedly that’s as far as I was willing to go back) no one making their marathon debut has ever won the Men’s Boston Marathon.
So a hearty “see ya later” to: Muktar Edris
5) Since 1922 when eventual 7-time winner, Clarence DeMar, won the race for the second time—eleven years after his first win—no multiple-time men’s winner has gone more than three years between victories.
Aloha: Lelisa Desisa
That leaves us with the following eight athletes that can win the Men’s 2025 Boston Marathon:
Sisay Lemma, John Korir, Evans Chebet, CyBrian Kotut, Haymanot Alew, Abel Kipchumba, Conner Mantz, Clayton Young
Good luck fellas!
THE WOMEN’S RACE
The women’s field is even larger than the men’s with 64 athletes listed according to the Boston Marathon website as of Wednesday, April 16. You can check out the full list HERE. Here we go:
1) Back to the a metric we used on the men’s side; going back to 2010, the only countries that have produced a Boston women’s winner are Ethiopia, Kenya, and the United States.
Arrivederci to: Calli Hauger-Thackery, Lily Partridge, Diana Bogantes, Rachel Hannah, Kylee Raftis, Kate Bazeley
2) You have to be really, really fast (already) to win. Also going back to 2010, no champion has had a PB slower than 2:25:49 before winning.
So long, farewell, auf wiedersehen goodbye, to: Tristin Colley, Annie Frisbie, Stephanie Bruce, Kodi Kleven, Lindsey Bradley, Sarah Reiter, Jessie Cardin, Ashlee Powers, Kaylee Flanagan, Mimi Smith, Anna Benedettini, Hailey Bowes, Rena Elmer, Veronica Eder, Claire Benjamin, Amanda Beach, Abbie McNulty, Sydney Bowman, Stephanie Rouse, Lucy Dobbs, Tammy Hsieh, Sarah Czuprynski, Margaret Vido, Lianne Pagano, Emilee Risteen, Allie Hackett, Dot McMahan, Meriah Earle, Laurie Knowles, Melissa Perlman, April Lund, Amber Green, Amber Thielbar
3) Boston doesn’t always go out fast. You need speed and experience at shorter distances to win. Every champ since 2019 (the super shoe era) had run a half marathon faster than 1:08:00 before winning Boston.
Off ya go to: Amane Beriso, Rahma Tusa, Emma Bates, Tsige Haileslase, Des Linden, Sara Vaughn, Gabi Rooker, Kellyn Taylor, Dakotah Popehn, Jackie Gaughan, Jess McClain
4) The longest stretch between victories for any multiple-time winner on the women’s side is seven years (Rita Jeptoo).
Au Revoir: Sharon Cherop
5) In the history of the women’s race there have only been three 3-time winners (Uta Pippig, Fatuma Roba, and Catherine Ndereba). All three won their third Boston within four years of their first.
A heartfelt goodbye to: Edna Kiplagat
That leaves us with the following nine athletes that can win the Women’s 2025 Boston Marathon:
Yalemzerf Yehualaw, Irine Cheptai, Keira D'Amato, Buze Diriba, Mary Ngugi-Cooper, Sara Hall, Hellen Obiri, Viola Cheptoo, Sharon Lokedi, Stacy Ndiwa
Good luck to all!